If you missed our recent webinar unpacking the latest developments in the Middle East, the full conversation is now available to watch.

What the Middle East Means for Markets Right Now

The discussion brought together three deeply experienced voices:

• Jane Dutton - award-winning news anchor with more than two decades of experience across CNN, BBC, Al Jazeera, eNCA and EWN
• Isaah Mhlangu - Chief Economist at Rand Merchant Bank (RMB)
• Anthea Gardner - Founder and Managing Partner at Cartesian Capital Asset Management, who moderated the session

The result was a thoughtful, wide-ranging conversation that moved beyond headlines to unpack what geopolitical tensions could mean for inflation, interest rates, and portfolios.

If you want to watch the full discussion, you can do so below:

But if you’re short on time, here are the key takeaways.

The Big Question: What Should Investors Be Looking At?

Unsurprisingly, the question everyone wanted answered was simple: What should we be investing in now?

Rather than jumping straight into specific stock picks, the panel took a more strategic view.

Anthea Gardner explained that in uncertain environments, the focus should be on how markets respond to global shocks, not just which shares are trending. She highlighted several areas she is watching closely, including:

• Oil-linked companies, given how energy prices tend to respond to geopolitical tensions
• Banks, which often react to changes in interest rate expectations and economic outlooks
• Gold, historically viewed as a defensive asset during periods of uncertainty
• Bonds, particularly as inflation and rate expectations shift

Her approach emphasised watching how the situation evolves before making large portfolio decisions.

Isaah Mhlangu encouraged investors to zoom out even further.

Instead of asking which specific companies to buy, he suggested focusing on which sectors historically benefit or struggle during periods of economic reform or fiscal consolidation.

For example:

• When governments tighten budgets, some sectors face pressure while others benefit from stability.
• When governments open industries to private participation, new opportunities can emerge.
• Structural reforms often create longer-term sector winners, even if short-term volatility increases.

In other words, the opportunity often lies in understanding how policy shifts reshape industries, rather than reacting to day-to-day market noise.

Why Oil Matters So Much

One of the most important themes from the discussion was the role of oil as a transmission channel between geopolitics and markets.

When geopolitical tensions affect oil supply or expectations around supply, the impact can ripple through the global economy.

Higher oil prices can influence:

• Inflation, as energy costs feed into transport, manufacturing, and production
• Interest rate expectations, as central banks respond to inflation pressure
• Consumer spending, as households face higher fuel and energy costs

Because of this, developments in the Middle East can move far beyond regional politics, influencing global economic conditions and financial markets.

Could This Change the Inflation Story?

A key debate during the webinar was whether the current disruption is temporary or structural.

If tensions ease relatively quickly, the impact on inflation and interest rates could be short-lived.

However, if conflict persists or expands, it could reshape the global inflation outlook by:

• Keeping energy prices elevated
• Adding supply chain pressures
• Complicating central bank policy decisions

Markets are therefore watching closely to determine whether this is a short-term shock or the beginning of a longer economic shift.

South Africa’s Position

The conversation also touched on South Africa’s resilience during global shocks.

According to Isaah Mhlangu, South Africa may be better positioned than in previous periods of global disruption, partly due to improvements in certain macroeconomic conditions and external balances.

That doesn’t mean the country is immune - global events still influence local markets - but it does suggest the potential for greater resilience than many investors assume.

The Geopolitical Layers That Matter

Another valuable element of the discussion was the deeper geopolitical context.

Jane Dutton highlighted that many of the most important dynamics shaping the region don’t always make it into daily headlines.

The conflict involves a complex mix of:

• Regional political tensions
• The strategic interests of major global powers
• Domestic political dynamics within countries in the region

Understanding these layers helps explain why conflicts can persist longer than expected — and why markets sometimes struggle to price geopolitical risk accurately.

Key Themes To Keep in Mind

While markets often react quickly to geopolitical events, the panel emphasised the importance of maintaining perspective.

• Oil prices remain one of the most important links between geopolitics and markets.
• Inflation and interest rate expectations could shift depending on how long tensions last.
• Sector dynamics often matter more than individual stock picks during periods of uncertainty.
• South Africa may show more resilience than in past global shocks.

Most importantly, moments like these highlight the value of staying informed and thinking strategically rather than reacting emotionally to market headlines.

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