As a fragile ceasefire shifts global risk sentiment, Charles unpacks what markets are really watching, why oil still leads, and how long-term conviction holds through uncertainty.
The Savage Take is where our CEO Charles Savage shares what he’s seeing and thinking each week, in markets and beyond.
Writing this from Dubai Airport. Cambodia and Vietnam ahead.
Kirra, my eldest daughter, is teaching English to special needs kids in Phnom Penh while studying psychology. We'll spend a week with her and Kunal playing tour guides for Mika, Sarah and me before heading on to Vietnam.
Travel does something specific for me. It creates space. It allows me to zoom out, frame where I am and return with more conviction than I left with. Coming off our results week, the timing couldn't be better.
There's also a wedding I'm missing. Andrea and Kirk. Andrea works directly with me, leading Data, Insights and Intelligence. I'm sorry not to be there. Wishing them a long game. A good one.
Last edition I said the Iran conflict was the market. Everything else was noise.
That held.
On April 8, hours before Trump's deadline expired, a two week ceasefire was agreed. The Strait of Hormuz, closed for over a month, began to reopen.
Markets moved immediately. Oil dropped nearly $20 in a session, with Brent falling from above $112 to below $94. The Dow surged over 1,300 points and the S&P 500 jumped 2.5 percent. Cyclicals ran hard.
South Africa felt it too. The rand firmed as oil pulled back, easing pressure on inflation expectations. Resource stocks, which had been riding the spike in oil and geopolitical risk, gave some ground back, while industrials and retailers found support. The JSE moved with the same underlying signal, relief.
The market had been pricing in something breaking. When the signal came, it moved. It always does.
By Thursday, oil was back above $97. Israel continued strikes and Iran signalled the ceasefire may already be compromised. Still, the S&P closed higher.
Locally, the picture is the same. We remain a price taker in global risk, but a beneficiary when pressure eases. Oil, the rand and the bond curve continue to set the tone.
The market is choosing direction over detail for now.
Two things are true at once. The ceasefire is fragile. The worst case scenario has been deferred. That is enough.
The next two weeks matter. Islamabad talks begin and the same fault lines remain, enrichment, Lebanon and Hormuz.
Iran is claiming victory. Trump is claiming victory. Both cannot be right.
|
S&P 500 (Fri Apr 10 close) |
6,816.89 (+3% on the week) |
|
Dow Jones (Fri Apr 10 close) |
47,916.57 (+3% on the week) |
|
Nasdaq (Fri Apr 10 close) |
22,902.90 (+4% on the week) |
|
JSE Top 40 (Fri Apr 10) |
~113,500 (+0.9% on the day) |
|
Rand / Dollar (Fri Apr 10) |
R16.40 (up 3%+ on the week) |
|
Brent Crude (Fri Apr 10) |
$95.20 |
|
WTI Crude (Fri Apr 10) |
$96.57 |
|
Gold (Fri Apr 10) |
$4,787 |
|
US 10-Year Yield |
4.32% |
We released results on April 8, the same day as the ceasefire.
The numbers held their own.
Full results are here if you want the detail.
Revenue is growing eleven times faster than costs. That is the line that matters. A decade of platform building showing up in one place. Twelve years of EasyEquities this October. Twenty five if you include EasyTrader.
This is compounding.
The share price moved about 9 percent on the day and then came the coverage. Business Day, EWN, Daily Investor, IOL, FAnews, News24, Moneyweb, RSG, SAFM and more.
That level of attention does not happen by accident. It is earned, quietly and consistently over years. The team deserves that.
Then the conversation shifted.
Finance Ghost polled his readers. 311 responses. 38 percent said exponential, another Capitec. I quote tweeted it. No pressure.
That matters.
Capitec is one of the great wealth creation stories in South Africa. To be mentioned in that context by an engaged investing audience is something to sit with.
But we are not trying to be Capitec. We are trying to be EasyEquities at scale.
Different model. Different opportunity. Same principle. Build for where customers find themselves. Reach them where they are. Keep costs low. Make the complex simple.
The second half may not carry the same tailwinds. Uncertainty is rising. But the leverage is structural.
I reread Andy Jassy's 2025 shareholder letter on this trip. Worth your time.
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy: 2025 Letter to Shareholders
The core idea is simple. Progress is not linear.
AWS took years of messy, uncertain paths before becoming obvious in hindsight. Conviction had to survive the mess.
Jassy's point is to run multiple bets in parallel, not sequentially. Do not wait for clarity. You will miss the cycle.
Drones, same day fulfilment and micro delivery are not competing, they are compounding.
He frames AI correctly too. Not as a feature, but as a full stack reinvention across every layer and every function. And something you still have to earn.
Reading it alongside our results, the parallels are clear. A decade of infrastructure now compounding. Distribution as engine. Product as fuel.
Philippines, ZARU and AI. EasyCredit, EasyProtect, EasyETFs, EasyAssetManagement, EasyVentures, EasyRetire and more. Not yet fully in the numbers, but already in motion.
Hungry to do so, and confident these investments will yield meaningful growth.
That is not a financial statement. That is posture.
The ceasefire is not resolution. It is a pause.
The market is pricing direction, not detail and it is probably right.
Globally and locally, the same applies. South Africa does not set the direction, but it responds to it quickly. That is the environment we are building in.
Our results said what they needed to say. Operating leverage is real and it is compounding.
The second half may be harder. That is fine. We are built for that.
Jassy reinforces it. Progress is not linear. Conviction has to survive the mess.
Travel reminds me of the same thing. It is not a break from the work, it is part of the work. Distance creates the perspective you cannot find from inside.
Kirra chose her own path. No pressure. No convention. Just conviction. Hard as a father to let go. But stand behind her I must. Proud too.
A week in Cambodia, then Vietnam, kids still young enough to play guide.
Travel is my greatest privilege. These weeks, the memories you stack up. That is a life well lived.
Watch the Strait. Watch the oil price. And keep building.
More from Cambodia.
The world is not waiting. What you do next is the only thing that matters.
Stay Savage,
Charles
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