Charles Savage reflects on oil at $115, a shock US jobs report, and rising stagflation fears and what they mean for markets right now. Beneath the volatility, he points to something quieter but more telling: how disciplined South African investors are responding.

Summary

1. Oil surged to $115 (+25%) and the US jobs report showed 92,000 job losses vs 55,000 expected gains, triggering global market sell-offs and renewed stagflation concerns.
   
   
2. AI markets are rotating - software stocks are outperforming infrastructure-heavy names as energy costs rise and investors reassess where long-term value sits.
   
   
3. EasyEquities investors deposited R880 million in one week, with 4,052 clients fully utilising the new R46,000 TFSA limit, signalling growing long-term investing discipline despite global volatility.

From Charles

Some weeks test your conviction.This one is testing your nerve.

Oil at $115. Gold selling off. Futures pointing lower everywhere. A jobs print in the US that nobody wanted to see.

Here is what actually matters.

Strait of Hormuz Risk, Oil Price Surge and Rising Stagflation Fears

Let's start with the irony that nobody wants to say out loud.

For years, the world made a deliberate, sustained, expensive bet on transitioning away from fossil fuels. And yet here we are, the global economy held hostage by a 33-kilometre stretch of water in the Persian Gulf.

The Strait of Hormuz is the most consequential piece of geography on earth right now.

Oil has moved to $115 a barrel. A 25% surge. The pace of this move is something I have only seen once before: the early days of Ukraine. And like that moment, I believe the spike will prove shorter-lived than the headlines suggest. Iran's offensive capacity has taken serious damage. There are already reports of some vessels moving through Hormuz. And politically, an offramp is not just desirable. It is urgent. Trump needs one if the mid-terms are to be salvageable.

But the risks on the other side are real. Desalination infrastructure is being targeted. Regional escalation is visible. Strategic reserve releases are being discussed in capitals across the world. Rate cuts have moved firmly off the table.

My instinct is that the severity of what markets are pricing this morning is precisely what accelerates a negotiated resolution. Extreme moves tend to do that. They create the political urgency that careful diplomacy cannot.

Now layer on Friday's US jobs print. 92,000 jobs cut against an expectation of 55,000 added. Unemployment ticking higher. Wage growth coming in above forecast. Each of those numbers, in isolation, is manageable. Together, in this environment, they are a problem. Stagflation is no longer just a word people are using for effect.

US markets reflected all of this on Friday. The Dow gave back close to 1%. The S&P lost 1.33%. The Nasdaq dropped 1.6%. This morning, US futures are pointing to further losses of around 2% at the open.

The consensus positions are being unwound hard. South Korea and Japan are down more than 7%, again underperforming the Hang Seng which is holding closer to 2.6% down. China tech, which nobody wanted six months ago, is now outperforming the crowded Korean and Japanese longs. That rotation is telling you something.

BlackRock has frozen redemptions in its private credit fund. Private credit has absorbed enormous capital over the past few years and any sign of stress there gets attention quickly.

And gold is down 2% this morning.

I know what you are thinking. If not now, when?

Here is my read. When markets sell off this fast and this hard, investors liquidate what has worked, and gold has worked. Positions are being unwound to raise cash, cover margin, and protect capital elsewhere. This is not gold failing as a store of value. This is acute liquidity pressure doing what it always does. The safe-haven bid tends to return once the forced selling exhausts itself.

Watch for that inflection.

The AI Rotation Nobody Predicted

Something has shifted quietly beneath the surface noise.

For months, the trade was clear: own the physical infrastructure of AI. The data centres, the chips, the power. Investors piled in. Then Nvidia reported. And since that moment it has been software, the unloved, asset-light, margin-rich software sector, that has outperformed every session in the US last week.

Think about why.

Building and running AI is energy-intensive. In a world where oil is at $115 and inflation expectations are being revised sharply upward, owning energy-hungry infrastructure looks very different than it did six months ago. The market is repricing that reality.

The AI cycle is not over. But the question of where the durable value sits is being asked more seriously now. Software does not need a power station to scale.

The SA Lens

Our open this morning is going to be under pressure. ALSI futures are pointing to a 1.2% drop at the open.

South Africa is not the centre of this storm. We are exposed to global risk-off, the rand will feel it, our market will open lower, but we are not the originating problem. Precious metals will find their floor once liquidity pressure eases. Our resource base remains strategically relevant in a world suddenly relearning how physical commodities matter. The financial sector has had a strong run and that underlying strength does not evaporate in a morning.

The survivor's premium for staying here, living here and investing here, continues to build. The world is more volatile than South Africa right now. That is not a small thing.

What Our Own Data Is Telling Us

In the middle of the loudest week in recent memory, something remarkable is happening in our numbers.

In the first full week of March, EasyEquities investors deposited more than R880 million. The fastest week of deposits in our history.

March is always strong. The tax year concentrates capital and intent. So the pace is expected. But the question it raises is more interesting than the number itself. Where does this capital sit between tax years? Who are these people, and what does their behaviour tell us?

The TFSA data answers that.

In that same first week, 4,052 EasyEquities clients fully utilised their Tax-Free Savings Account allowance at the new R46,000 limit. Up 54% on the same period last year, when 2,639 clients fully utilised the old R36,000 limit. In value: R186 million deployed in a single week, up 96% from R95 million a year ago.

Now hold that against what South Africa's retailers are reporting. Stressed consumers. Shrinking discretionary budgets. Households pulling back.

Two pictures of the same country.

The EasyEquities picture shows a cohort that has made a different decision. They invest first. Not with what is left over but with what is set aside before anything else. In a week when global markets are under significant pressure, these investors did not hesitate. They fully utilised their allowance.

That is not a statistic. That is a philosophy.

 What I Am Watching

1. Whether Hormuz produces a diplomatic resolution and how quickly the oil move reverses

2. Gold's recovery once forced liquidation pressure clears

3. The software rotation in US equities and whether it holds as energy costs bite

4. Credit spreads, still the most unambiguous signal available

5. The rand against the broader commodity complex as the week develops

This is a difficult morning. The situation is fragile and moving fast.

But disciplined investors are not built for easy mornings. They are built for this one.

The 4,052 who fully utilised their TFSA allowance this week already knew that before the week began.

Stay Savage,

Charles

So, When Do You Actually Sell Shares?

How to Spot Shares That Are on the Rise

How to Customise Your Viewing Experience on Easy 3.0

Why Defensive Stocks Can Be Your Best Bet for Stability and Income

7 Tips to Survive and Thrive During Market Uncertainties

Have You Tried These Saving Tips to Hit Your First R50,000?

Inside Our Team’s Top AI Basket Picks and Platform Features

Buying the Dip Doesn’t Mean Just One Thing

How to Create Powerful Prompts for AI Baskets on EasyEquities

Any opinions, news, research, reports, analyses, prices, or other information contained within this research is provided by an employee of EasyEquities an authorised FSP (FSP no 22588) as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice for the purposes of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002. First World Trader (Pty) Ltd t/a EasyEquities (“EasyEquities”) does not warrant the correctness, accuracy, timeliness, reliability or completeness of any information (i) contained within this research and (ii) received from third party data providers. You must rely solely upon your own judgment in all aspects of your investment and/or trading decisions and all investments and/or trades are made at your own risk. EasyEquities (including any of their employees) will not accept any liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage, including without limitation, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on the market commentary. The content contained within is subject to change at any time without notice.